Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd859…0698
crypto · 20 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage88d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-19? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Penguins 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-18? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 01 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 01 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 20 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 20 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Mar 19 $2 +$6 +283%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 18 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% −$9
other 19% −$6
sports 6% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $9 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $8 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $11 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $8 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $4 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 86d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 86d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.0% +7.7% 100% 100% +7.7%
≤30d 1 +19.0% +7.7% 100% 100% +7.7%
≤90d 18 -33.8% -40.1% 39% 28% -26.9%
all 18 -33.8% -40.1% 39% 28% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 28% -26.9%
10% -45.9% 22% -33.9%
15% -51.1% 11% -40.3%
20% -55.9% 11% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.97 · official $10.97 (match) · 37 history records