Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

D8 0xd85b…50af other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$7 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown52%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+16.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+28.8%	+16.5%	40%	40%	+18.1%
≤30d	5	+28.8%	+16.5%	40%	40%	+18.1%
≤90d	5	+28.8%	+16.5%	40%	40%	+18.1%
all	5	+28.8%	+16.5%	40%	40%	+18.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.5%	40%	+18.1%
10%	+5.4%	40%	+6.8%
15%	-4.8%	40%	-3.5%
20%	-14.1%	20%	-12.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +29% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$39 vs −$9 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$7

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown52%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$36	−$1	-3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 19	$31	+$64	+206%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$25	−$25	-98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 17	$43	−$2	-4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$29	+$13	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	47¢	$34	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$36	1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$96	1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	32¢	$31	7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$25	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	47¢	$41	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	SELL Aurora Gaming	54¢	$41	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Aurora Gaming	55¢	$43	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$29	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records