Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd85d…0f24 sports 15 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$91 (-13%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$5
other 21% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.4% -20.8% 47% 47% -22.3%
≤30d 15 -12.4% -20.8% 47% 47% -22.3%
≤90d 15 -12.4% -20.8% 47% 47% -22.3%
all 15 -12.4% -20.8% 47% 47% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 47% -22.3%
10% -28.3% 47% -29.7%
15% -35.3% 47% -36.5%
20% -41.6% 33% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$42 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $90 −$89 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $49 +$19 +38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $127 +$58 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 +$36 +89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $37 +$35 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$25 +82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $33 +$32 +97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records