Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd861…672c sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$88 (-19%) realized −$84 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days−$105
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$26
other 19% −$2
world 6% −$30
politics 5% −$23
finance 4% +$9
crypto 1% −$6
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +65.5% +49.8% 67% 67% +67.4%
≤30d 19 -30.8% -37.4% 26% 26% -21.6%
≤90d 38 -38.0% -43.9% 21% 21% -25.8%
all 38 -38.0% -43.9% 21% 21% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 21% -25.8%
10% -49.2% 21% -32.9%
15% -54.1% 21% -39.4%
20% -58.6% 18% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$9 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)38 / 46
History coverage68d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$25 +249%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 29 $20 +$9 +47%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$15 +146%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$21 +410%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $11 +$20 +181%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Muslim" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $16 +$24 +152%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 22 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY 19¢ $10 29m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 31m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 34m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 34m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 36m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $5 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 16¢ $10 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 13d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 13d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $41 13d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 13d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 13d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 13d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 15d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 15d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 18d
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $20 33d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 99¢ $26 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.43 · official $48.20 · 71 history records