Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd866…e835 crypto 1738 markets active 3h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$921 (+1%) realized +$921 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%1727W / 11L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$23
14 days+$30
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$804
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 1% -9.8%
≤30d 243 +0.4% -9.1% 99% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 1738 +1.5% -8.2% 99% 2% -8.9%
all 1738 +1.5% -8.2% 99% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 2% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 1% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 1% -25.6%
20% -32.3% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$65 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$921
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1727 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1738 / 1738
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1738 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $61 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $98 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $90 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $64 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $84 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $58 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $89 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $77 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $37 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $61 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $98 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $90 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $64 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $84 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $58 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $89 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $37 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $76 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $24 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.20 · official $17.70 · 3500 history records