Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

D8 0xd867…eab2 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$803 (+20%) realized +$758 · open +$45

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip

Net edge+3%after slip

Net WR73%break-even

Win rate81%21W / 5L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$140per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$595now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$414

7 days+$752

14 days+$827

30 days+$827

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +73%

net ROI/market (all)+7.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+30.8%	+18.4%	89%	83%	+17.9%
≤30d	26	+18.5%	+7.2%	81%	73%	+11.8%
≤90d	26	+18.5%	+7.2%	81%	73%	+11.8%
all	26	+18.5%	+7.2%	81%	73%	+11.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.2%	73%	+11.8%
10%	-3.1%	54%	+1.1%
15%	-12.4%	42%	-8.7%
20%	-21.0%	35%	-17.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late +31% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$60 vs −$86 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$595

Realized+$758

Unrealized+$45

Win rate (resolved)81%

Wins / losses21 / 5

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions3

Markets (closed)26 / 29

History coverage9d

Avg bet$140

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	22¢	23¢	$350	$377	+$27 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	7¢	$100	$137	+$37 (+37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	11¢	$100	$80	−$20 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$101	+$71	+70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$100	+$16	+16%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5	Jun 28	$101	+$60	+60%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5	Jun 28	$101	+$60	+60%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Jun 28	$152	+$206	+136%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	+$63	+62%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$202	+$131	+64%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$101	+$34	+34%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 26	$200	+$4	+2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 25	$101	+$29	+29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	+$71	+70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	+$34	+34%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 25	$101	+$80	+79%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 24	$201	+$21	+11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$100	+$16	+16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$416	+$55	+13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$202	+$92	+46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$100	+$12	+12%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$200	+$6	+3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$101	+$50	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 20	$129	−$98	-77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 20	$31	−$31	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Jun 20	$160	+$146	+91%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$172	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	38h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	23¢	$102	38h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	62¢	$101	41h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	62¢	$101	42h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	22¢	$102	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$100	2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$333	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$135	3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	74¢	$101	3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	SELL Netherlands	100¢	$204	3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	98¢	$200	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	SELL Mexico	100¢	$130	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$172	4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	77¢	$101	4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$102	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$135	4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	SELL Brazil	100¢	$182	4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	55¢	$101	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $594.99 · official $595.18 (match) · 69 history records