Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd867…a353 crypto 298 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (413 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%203W / 95L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day413.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$584
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (413 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -0.9% -10.3% 68% 52% -10.8%
≤30d 298 -0.9% -10.3% 68% 52% -10.8%
≤90d 298 -0.9% -10.3% 68% 52% -10.8%
all 298 -0.9% -10.3% 68% 52% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover413.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 52% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 37% -19.3%
15% -26.7% 27% -27.1%
20% -33.9% 19% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$77 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses203 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)298 / 298
History coverage2d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day413.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 298 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $564 −$547 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $213 −$206 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $607 +$105 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $149 −$39 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $208 −$200 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$47 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $584 +$171 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $631 +$103 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $155 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$41 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$48 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$105 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $252 +$34 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $196 +$129 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$101 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $63 −$47 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$109 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $209 +$91 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $296 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $403 +$43 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$8 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$34 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$7 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $152 +$80 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $92 −$90 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$28 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $358 +$15 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$100 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$59 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $124 −$101 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$6 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$5 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$62 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $89 +$111 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $151 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $202 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $202 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $202 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $49 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $149 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $208 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $114 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $201 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1268 history records