Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd86a…89c7 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,043 (+16%) realized +$854 · open +$189
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$499
7 days+$1,050
14 days+$988
30 days+$988
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$532
other 29% +$734
world 1% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +14.4% +3.5% 76% 76% +10.9%
≤30d 26 +9.8% -0.6% 69% 69% +5.5%
≤90d 26 +9.8% -0.6% 69% 69% +5.5%
all 26 +9.8% -0.6% 69% 69% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 69% +5.5%
10% -10.1% 65% -4.6%
15% -18.8% 50% -13.8%
20% -26.8% 12% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$108 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized+$854
Unrealized+$189
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage8d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 55¢ 100¢ $231 $420 +$189 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $202 +$106 +52%
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots Jun 27 $232 +$101 +44%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $98 −$89 -90%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $200 +$79 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $115 −$61 -53%
Norway vs. France: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $245 +$70 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $355 +$293 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $376 +$273 +73%
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $67 −$66 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $403 −$400 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $172 +$61 +35%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $332 +$102 +31%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $106 −$39 -37%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $291 +$105 +36%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $131 +$60 +46%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $101 +$42 +42%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $202 +$88 +44%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $161 +$40 +25%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $240 +$120 +50%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $255 +$92 +36%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $378 +$75 +20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $458 −$15 -3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $301 +$92 +31%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 20 $173 −$167 -96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $198 −$25 -12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $145 +$52 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 55¢ $234 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 46¢ $168 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 2h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes $9 20h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 30¢ $98 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $202 22h
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots BUY Yes 69¢ $232 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 21¢ $54 24h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $200 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $115 25h
Norway vs. France: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 77¢ $245 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $355 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $376 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $67 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $403 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score AND Will Czechia vs. Mexico en BUY 21¢ $29 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners AND Cz BUY 59¢ $169 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $172 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $332 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $66 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $106 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $291 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $131 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $101 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $202 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $161 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $240 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $255 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $378 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 82¢ $264 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.79 · official $419.79 (match) · 60 history records