Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd86e…580a other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$136 (+7%) realized +$142 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$92
sports 7% +$26
world 4% +$9
weather 2% +$17
crypto 1% +$7
politics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +71.4% +55.0% 100% 50% +1.5%
≤30d 2 +71.4% +55.0% 100% 50% +1.5%
≤90d 6 +35.0% +22.1% 67% 50% +7.3%
all 31 +49.1% +34.9% 42% 39% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.9% 39% -3.4%
10% +22.0% 35% -12.7%
15% +10.2% 29% -21.1%
20% -0.6% 23% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +83% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$20 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$142
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage205d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $31 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 24 $58 +$2 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 +$6 +140%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 27 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $5 −$1 -25%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Mar 25 $5 −$1 -28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 25 $5 −$2 -35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Mar 23 $10 +$2 +20%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31? Mar 23 $13 −$9 -68%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Mar 19 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9? Mar 10 $5 +$9 +181%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 7? Mar 08 $1 +$13 +1329%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 7? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -99%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Mar 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Mar 06 $400 −$220 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 6? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Ma Mar 06 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 7? Mar 06 $5 +$5 +96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on March 7? Mar 05 $5 +$3 +61%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Ma Mar 05 $5 −$4 -82%
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $10 +$65 +646%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jan 31 $20 −$1 -3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 04 $923 +$337 +36%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 10 $300 −$36 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $60 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $58 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $32 6d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 57d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 57d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 63d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 74d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 90d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 90d
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 90d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 92d
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 92d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 82¢ $126 96d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 65¢ $100 101d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 104d
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 104d
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 105d
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 105d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 105d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9? SELL Yes 66¢ $12 106d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 106d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 106d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 106d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 106d
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 107d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 7? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 108d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 109d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Ma SELL Yes 19¢ $7 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.45 · official $24.45 (match) · 78 history records