Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:28:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D8 0xd86e…45ce sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (258 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$29,441 (+34%) realized +$29,201 · open +$240
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$3,597per market
Trades / day258.0pace
Fees−$787est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$37,652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$10,232
other 35% +$21,573
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (258 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +25.0% +13.1% 73% 73% +49.3%
≤30d 15 +25.0% +13.1% 73% 73% +49.3%
≤90d 15 +25.0% +13.1% 73% 73% +49.3%
all 15 +25.0% +13.1% 73% 73% +49.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover258.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.1% 73% +49.3%
10% +2.2% 67% +35.0%
15% ← realistic here -7.6% 47% +22.0%
20% -16.7% 47% +10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,323 vs −$1,248 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.32 per $1 lost it wins $7.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$37,652
Realized+$29,201
Unrealized+$240
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Est. fees paid−$787
Open positions10
Markets (closed)15 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,597
Trades / day258.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) PortlandFire 49¢ 42¢ $14,461 $12,504 −$1,957 (-14%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 58¢ $6,088 $5,982 −$106 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ 45¢ $4,293 $3,970 −$323 (-8%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 56¢ $3,662 $3,696 +$33 (+1%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $2,687 $2,714 +$27 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 55¢ 56¢ $2,549 $2,572 +$23 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 55¢ $2,214 $2,414 +$199 (+9%)
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 173.5 Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $2,346 +$2,346 (+0%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $826 $818 −$8 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 59¢ 60¢ $630 $635 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $13,530 +$7,497 +55%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $2,068 +$2,174 +105%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $669 +$169 +25%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $744 +$544 +73%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $3,677 +$3,163 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,663 −$2,614 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $14,084 +$14,672 +104%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $3,892 +$4,756 +122%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2,518 +$656 +26%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +32%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $97 +$15 +16%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2,260 +$2,907 +129%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1,529 −$1,528 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $520 −$520 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 25 $333 −$329 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $6 0m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $646 0m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $4 4m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $122 11m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $55 18m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $6 20m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $11 33m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $12 34m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $36 38m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $119 39m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $10 44m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $6 51m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $12 51m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $1,650 51m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $3 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 51¢ $647 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $1,996 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 51¢ $965 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 51¢ $956 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 51¢ $82 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $1 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $3 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $18 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $4 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $1,683 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $14 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $7 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $148 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $195 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,651.61 · official $37,651.61 (match) · 296 history records