Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd86e…12ea crypto 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+2%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate86%70W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day88.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 58% -10.8%
≤30d 81 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 58% -10.8%
≤90d 81 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 58% -10.8%
all 81 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 58% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 58% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 9% -19.3%
15% -27.1% 1% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$32 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses70 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day88.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$9 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$5 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$6 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$7 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$6 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$7 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$7 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$9 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$6 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$8 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$14 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$7 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $32 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $32 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $32 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $32 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $32 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $32 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $32 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $32 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $32 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $32 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $24 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.51 · official $39.51 (match) · 157 history records