Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D8 0xd870…34c6 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+10%) realized +$11 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +96.1% +77.4% 100% 100% +77.4%
≤90d 2 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 50% +14.3%
all 7 -16.8% -24.7% 57% 57% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 57% +1.1%
10% -31.9% 43% -8.6%
15% -38.5% 29% -17.4%
20% -44.5% 14% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage149d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 43¢ 74¢ $25 $43 +$18 (+71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs La BOMBAS (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Jun 10 $25 +$24 +96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Feb 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Deer Gaming vs 4 SWINES & A BUM (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Feb 12 $48 +$11 +22%
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs Ruddy Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Feb 05 $35 +$14 +39%
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs Verdant (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Jan 29 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Arctic Pandas vs 4 SWINES & A BUM (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Jan 22 $100 +$25 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.73 · official $42.73 (match) · 16 history records