Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd871…6bba sports 749 markets active 4h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$42,965 (-12%) realized −$42,965 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%331W / 426L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$485per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$3,906est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,537
7 days−$13,867
14 days−$16,684
30 days−$30,164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$42,522
other 0% +$1,111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -37.4% -43.4% 26% 26% -44.2%
≤30d 141 -16.2% -24.1% 35% 35% -41.4%
≤90d 477 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 39% -30.7%
all 757 -6.0% -14.9% 44% 44% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 44% -23.7%
10% -23.1% 44% -31.0%
15% ← realistic here -30.5% 43% -37.7%
20% -37.3% 42% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$625) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$479 vs −$513 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42,965
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses331 / 426
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$3,906
Open positions0
Markets (closed)757 / 749
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$485
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 757 Trades
no open positions (381 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chile Open: Nicolas Jarry vs Dino Prizmic Jun 29 $512 −$512 -100%
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $10,502 −$10,502 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Alexei Popyrin vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 29 $449 −$449 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $391 −$391 -100%
Nicholls Colonels vs. Lamar Cardinals: O/U 144.5 Jun 29 $1,155 −$1,155 -100%
Tigre 2: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 29 $478 −$478 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $2,606 −$2,606 -100%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $1,917 −$1,917 -100%
Celtics vs. Lakers: O/U 217.5 Jun 29 $412 −$412 -100%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $2,539 +$2,887 +114%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,936 −$1,936 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 28 $1,175 +$818 +70%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $1,168 −$1,166 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $1,995 +$1,410 +71%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,526 −$1,500 -98%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $3,074 +$1,838 +60%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $1,015 −$1,011 -100%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $1,442 +$1,255 +87%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $798 +$1,990 +249%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $237 +$806 +340%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $50 −$49 -98%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $97 −$94 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $335 −$330 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $145 −$142 -98%
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $143 −$140 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $49 −$49 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $217 −$213 -98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 22 $11 −$11 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $820 −$820 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $368 +$454 +123%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $190 +$188 +99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $800 −$789 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $306 −$300 -98%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $261 +$615 +235%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $813 −$802 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $305 −$300 -98%
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Calgary Stampeders: O/U 49.5 Jun 21 $647 +$482 +74%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $991 −$978 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $665 +$384 +58%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $751 +$505 +67%
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $490 +$256 +52%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $471 −$466 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $54 −$53 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $81 −$79 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $334 −$329 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $310 −$306 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $366 +$278 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $96 −$94 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $169 +$196 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,426 3h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2,539 6h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $180 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $541 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $78 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $24 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $541 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $6 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $6 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $541 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 8h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 8h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,992 8h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $137 9h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,031 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3,406 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $174 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $34 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records