Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd875…19cf other 420 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,789 (-9%) realized −$1,734 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%108W / 288L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$1,544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$296
7 days−$296
14 days−$296
30 days−$1,818
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$869
other 40% −$44
crypto 9% −$643
world 2% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -37.7% -43.7% 25% 24% -12.5%
≤30d 396 -19.9% -27.5% 27% 26% -18.0%
≤90d 396 -19.9% -27.5% 27% 26% -18.0%
all 396 -19.9% -27.5% 27% 26% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 26% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 22% -25.9%
15% -40.8% 19% -33.0%
20% -46.6% 17% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$28 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,544
Realized−$1,734
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses108 / 288
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions24
Markets (closed)396 / 420
History coverage25d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $203 $195 −$8 (-4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $155 $155 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $142 $135 −$7 (-5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $137 $132 −$5 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $115 $108 −$7 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $108 $105 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $88 $85 −$3 (-4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Hapoel Galil Elyon Ironi Ness Ziona 64¢ 62¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-2%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Over 51¢ 54¢ $52 $55 +$3 (+6%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 55¢ 54¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-9%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 32¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Vitinha: 1+ goals Yes 17¢ 11¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-35%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Exact Score: IK Start 1 - 0 Vålerenga Fotball? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Andreozzi/Guinard Jun 17 $118 +$11 +10%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $477 +$211 +44%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 17 $201 +$37 +18%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $854 +$169 +20%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $254 +$50 +20%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $776 +$217 +28%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $201 +$61 +30%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $522 +$177 +34%
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $82 +$21 +26%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $76 +$426 +562%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$37 +57%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $47 +$55 +118%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Hapoel Galil Elyon BUY Ironi Ness Ziona 64¢ $66 2m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Andreozzi/Guinard SELL Helioevaara/Patten 100¢ $130 4m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 8m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 14m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 15m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 15m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 16m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 17m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 17m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 17m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 27m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 27m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 27m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 29m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $54 29m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 29m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $42 30m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 30m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 31m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 32m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 32m
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri SELL Buvaysar Gadamauri 100¢ $521 34m
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri SELL Buvaysar Gadamauri 96¢ $167 41m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Andreozzi/Guinard BUY Helioevaara/Patten 91¢ $118 47m
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 70¢ $72 49m
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 65¢ $29 58m
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 69¢ $103 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,544.21 · official $1,544.34 (match) · 1425 history records