Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd875…cd1d sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$405 (+16%) realized +$127 · open +$278
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$652
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +10.6% +0.0% 50% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 20 +10.6% +0.0% 50% 50% +4.9%
≤90d 20 +10.6% +0.0% 50% 50% +4.9%
all 20 +10.6% +0.0% 50% 50% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 50% +4.9%
10% -9.5% 50% -5.1%
15% -18.3% 50% -14.3%
20% -26.3% 45% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$80 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$278
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage7d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 100¢ $100 $278 +$178 (+178%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 100¢ $150 $250 +$100 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 +$79 +78%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $154 +$252 +163%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$97 -94%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $205 −$25 -12%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$7 -7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $154 −$150 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $103 +$200 +194%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$79 +78%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $103 +$102 +99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $133 −$130 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $164 +$59 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$94 +91%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $103 +$120 +116%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$67 +66%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $99 +$102 +103%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $72 −$70 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $153 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $103 10h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $102 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $52 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 83¢ $228 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $103 17h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $180 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 35h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $96 35h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $102 35h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $205 36h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $154 42h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $102 47h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $103 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $103 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $102 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $103 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $133 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $62 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $84 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $102 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $102 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $103 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $102 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $99 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $72 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.51 · official $527.51 (match) · 39 history records