Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd879…3ff6 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$235 (+4%) realized +$75 · open +$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%41W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day130.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$480
other 1% +$13
weather 0% −$5
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -15.3% -23.4% 52% 37% -19.2%
≤30d 79 -15.3% -23.4% 52% 37% -19.2%
≤90d 79 -15.3% -23.4% 52% 37% -19.2%
all 79 -15.3% -23.4% 52% 37% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 37% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 27% -26.9%
15% -37.4% 24% -34.0%
20% -43.5% 20% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$41 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$160
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses41 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage2d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day130.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 16¢ 30¢ $200 $360 +$160 (+80%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$112 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $303 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $911 +$175 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $701 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $911 −$900 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $642 +$38 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $131 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $137 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $141 +$206 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $123 −$105 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$10 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $217 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.99 · official $379.99 (match) · 298 history records