Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0
score
D8 0xd87d…52f9 world 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 377d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$10,595 (+25%) realized +$10,599 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%69W / 79L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$915
14 days+$3,565
30 days+$3,070
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$7,856
sports 9% +$2,966
other 5% −$204
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +27.3% +15.2% 40% 40% +32.7%
≤30d 28 +115.7% +95.2% 50% 39% +11.4%
≤90d 64 +78.2% +61.2% 47% 34% +7.7%
all 148 +36.6% +23.6% 47% 32% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.6% 32% +10.5%
10% +11.7% 27% -0.1%
15% +1.0% 22% -9.7%
20% -8.9% 20% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$240 vs −$76 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized+$10,599
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses69 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 150
History coverage377d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $410 $406 −$4 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$14 +27%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9 −$2 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 20 $63 −$10 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $1,160 −$170 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $679 +$1,083 +160%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $325 +$32 +10%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $50 +$632 +1263%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 18 $245 −$38 -16%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $0 $0 +8%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $200 −$87 -43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $3,310 +$566 +17%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $450 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $300 −$74 -25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $220 −$220 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $2,366 +$1,625 +69%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $106 +$24 +23%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$190 +1843%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $55 +$49 +90%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $200 +$41 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $80 +$72 +89%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $1,102 −$972 -88%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $410 −$147 -36%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $703 +$805 +115%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 07 $298 −$177 -60%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $562 −$70 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $101 −$53 -52%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $236 −$44 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $574 +$2,436 +424%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 25 $450 +$4 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $2,749 −$1,082 -39%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $672 −$76 -11%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $314 +$15 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $426 +$68 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 15 $230 −$59 -26%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? May 15 $360 −$360 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $143 −$73 -51%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 07 $100 −$14 -14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 28 $760 −$77 -10%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $500 −$25 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,619 +$1,161 +72%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $1,355 +$1,482 +109%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $200 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $300 +$5 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $724 +$191 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $641 −$429 -67%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $1,317 +$24 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $1,775 +$451 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 16 $270 −$80 -30%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Apr 15 $8 +$5 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $20 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $40 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $64 39h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $7 39h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $9 39h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 39h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $45 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $60 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $53 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $11 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $63 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $230 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $40 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $879 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $783 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $18 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $390 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $3 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $8 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $10 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $49 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $123 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $200 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $300 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $137 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $129 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $550 7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $164 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.87 · official $465.87 (match) · 1403 history records