Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D8 0xd883…2860 politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% −$5
world 6% $0
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 17 -1.2% -10.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage244d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $169 $169 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $189 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $220 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $239 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -18%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Dec 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will Gold close between $3400 and $3500 at the end of 2025? Oct 23 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 3h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 5h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 7h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 10h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 16h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 18h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 23h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 23h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 24h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 25h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 27h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 31h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 34h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 34h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 35h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 36h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 36h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 37h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 39h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 44h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 47h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 2d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 2d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.70 · official $187.70 (match) · 46 history records