Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd884…84c3 crypto 221 markets active 2h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$149 (+0%) realized +$151 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%219W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$17
14 days+$26
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$137
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% +$3
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 24 -3.8% -13.0% 96% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 67 -1.3% -10.7% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 220 -0.2% -9.7% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$547) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×131.28 per $1 lost it wins $131.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$613
Realized+$151
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses219 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)220 / 221
History coverage541d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $615 $613 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $612 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $610 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $607 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $602 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $601 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $595 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $595 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $593 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $592 +$1 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $590 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $590 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $589 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $586 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $585 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $582 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $579 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $578 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $576 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $574 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $569 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $569 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $567 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 15 $565 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $558 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $556 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $550 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $615 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $612 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $610 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $607 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $602 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $601 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $595 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $595 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $593 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 100¢ $592 10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $590 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $590 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $589 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $586 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $585 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $584 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $584 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $582 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $581 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $579 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $578 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $576 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $574 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 99¢ $569 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $569 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $567 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $566 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $566 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $565 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $613.46 · official $613.46 (match) · 454 history records