Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd885…9ae2 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$186 (-6%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$139
14 days−$608
30 days−$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +56.3% +41.4% 100% 100% +40.0%
≤30d 11 +11.1% +0.6% 64% 55% -21.6%
≤90d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 50% -30.8%
all 15 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 53% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 53% -15.5%
10% -14.7% 53% -23.6%
15% -22.9% 53% -31.0%
20% -30.5% 47% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$213 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage240d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $152 +$74 +49%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $102 +$65 +64%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $283 −$31 -11%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $80 +$59 +73%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $76 +$68 +90%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $76 +$6 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $480 −$472 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $129 −$127 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $255 −$250 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $315 +$367 +117%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$10 +67%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Apr 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 20 $119 +$102 +86%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $607 +$340 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $103 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $33 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $40 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $50 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 7h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $60 41h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 76¢ $16 41h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 68¢ $57 42h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 59¢ $33 42h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 42h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $118 9d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $127 9d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $131 9d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $152 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $80 10d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $76 10d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $82 10d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $76 10d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $180 13d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $299 13d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $129 13d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 18¢ $102 13d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $153 13d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $397 14d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 90¢ $120 14d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 92¢ $164 14d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 31¢ $64 14d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 31¢ $0 14d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 31¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records