Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd888…6035 other 80 markets active 5h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$40
other 41% −$27
sports 6% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -7.6% -16.4% 28% 24% -8.6%
≤30d 80 -7.6% -16.4% 28% 24% -8.6%
≤90d 80 -7.6% -16.4% 28% 24% -8.6%
all 80 -7.6% -16.4% 28% 24% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 24% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 18% -17.3%
15% -31.7% 14% -25.3%
20% -38.4% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 +$4 +281%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -72%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -50%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 +$10 +650%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +15%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 +$10 +650%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $18 +$4 +20%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 +$7 +225%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $1 +$10 +642%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 20h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records