Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd888…3c9f sports 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$58,415 (+11%) realized +$58,405 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%54W / 59L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,898per market
Trades / day95.9pace
Fees−$5,804est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$650now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$58,521
other 4% +$3,452
tech 4% +$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +35.6% +22.7% 39% 22% -17.5%
≤30d 96 +35.7% +22.7% 49% 34% -17.3%
≤90d 113 +28.5% +16.3% 48% 33% -22.7%
all 113 +28.5% +16.3% 48% 33% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.3% 33% -22.7%
10% +5.2% 27% -30.1%
15% ← realistic here -5.0% 19% -36.8%
20% -14.3% 14% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$5,522) neutral
Persistence
early +23% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
30.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,581 vs −$2,919 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$650
Realized+$58,405
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses54 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$5,804
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 92
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$5,898
Trades / day95.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 32¢ 32¢ $640 $650 +$10 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $813 −$962 -118%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,186 −$1,186 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoff Jun 17 $3,157 −$4,265 -135%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Enterprise Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,114 −$1,114 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoff Jun 17 $2,957 −$3,309 -112%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $13 +$1,251 +9896%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $626 −$783 -125%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,442 −$2,358 -97%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $548 +$8,363 +1525%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL NORTH/ Jun 17 $4,567 −$4,929 -108%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $999 −$329 -33%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $268 −$366 -136%
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $513 −$437 -85%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $1,399 −$1,399 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Jun 17 $1,207 −$1,207 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $4,194 −$4,194 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 17 $10,828 −$11,348 -105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,223 +$2,110 +172%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,580 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,522 −$336 -6%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $560 −$560 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,778 +$2,616 +69%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,899 −$1,860 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $32,983 +$11,215 +34%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $36,030 −$11,391 -32%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $13,375 +$178 +1%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4,311 +$195 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $22,431 +$7,136 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $840 +$1,160 +138%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $740 −$740 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,412 +$1,045 +43%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1,774 +$34 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $461 +$9 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $7,221 +$1,127 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $6,524 +$41 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $442 +$5 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $866 +$9 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $608 −$600 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,288 +$1,045 +46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $2,034 −$1,993 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,052 +$57 +3%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 01 $2,243 −$505 -22%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Jun 01 $5,845 +$7,400 +127%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $520 +$70 +13%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports - Map 4 Winner May 31 $287 +$21 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $79 1m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $10 1m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $2 2m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $0 2m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $212 2m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $5 3m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $235 3m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $97 3m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $580 14m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,900 19m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $840 19m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $840 19m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $1,223 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $715 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $38 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $397 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $31 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $22 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $649.99 · official $649.99 (match) · 3500 history records