Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd891…7341 sports 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,587 (-8%) realized −$1,587 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%120W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$582
30 days−$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,430
other 2% −$174
crypto 2% −$72
world 1% −$1
politics 0% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -16.7% -24.6% 67% 67% -13.5%
≤30d 69 -11.8% -20.2% 64% 58% -14.1%
≤90d 71 -14.3% -22.4% 62% 56% -14.6%
all 200 -11.9% -20.3% 60% 53% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 53% -16.5%
10% -27.9% 40% -24.5%
15% -34.9% 26% -31.8%
20% -41.3% 17% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$77 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses120 / 80
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage245d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 200 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$8 +26%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $101 +$24 +24%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $40 −$40 -99%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Hunter/McNally vs Dart/Lumsden Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $92 +$7 +7%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $78 +$14 +17%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $64 +$14 +21%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $56 +$8 +14%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $34 +$22 +65%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $37 +$10 +26%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $28 +$9 +33%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $24 +$4 +16%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $76 +$35 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 −$55 -99%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $206 −$204 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $160 +$85 +54%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $101 −$99 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $97 −$95 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $76 +$21 +28%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $137 −$136 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $6 +$1 +11%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $86 +$51 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $40 +$46 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $231 −$135 -59%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $128 +$54 +42%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $142 +$86 +61%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $354 +$44 +12%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $8 −$4 -44%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $204 +$120 +59%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $130 +$57 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $138 −$137 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $50 +$17 +34%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $154 −$153 -99%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $50 +$22 +44%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $371 +$23 +6%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $311 +$18 +6%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $152 +$204 +134%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $151 +$19 +13%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $101 +$21 +21%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $296 +$101 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $30 1h
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 80¢ $101 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 60¢ $40 32h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 89¢ $73 7d
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Hunter/McNally vs Dart/Lumsden BUY Hunter/McNally 62¢ $25 7d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $99 7d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $92 7d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 92¢ $38 7d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $40 7d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $78 7d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 82¢ $64 7d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 87¢ $56 8d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $34 8d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 57¢ $13 8d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $37 8d
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 75¢ $28 9d
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 86¢ $24 9d
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 43¢ $31 11d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 90¢ $55 11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $56 11d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 91¢ $55 11d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 65¢ $35 11d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 59¢ $40 11d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 57¢ $25 12d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 49¢ $51 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $206 12d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston SELL Taylah Preston 99¢ $206 12d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Lanlana Tararudee 44¢ $40 12d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston SELL Taylah Preston 82¢ $40 12d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 82¢ $49 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 491 history records