Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd895…39e2 sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+1%) realized +$61 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%60W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$487
7 days+$331
14 days+$61
30 days+$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$537
other 36% +$66
world 5% −$287
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -26.5% -33.5% 50% 47% -1.0%
≤30d 92 -20.3% -27.9% 48% 47% -4.4%
≤90d 100 -21.0% -28.5% 48% 47% -4.5%
all 123 -19.4% -27.1% 49% 46% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 46% -4.5%
10% -34.1% 39% -13.6%
15% -40.4% 32% -21.9%
20% -46.3% 23% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$17 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$906
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses60 / 63
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 125
History coverage125d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $900 $906 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $684 +$176 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $552 +$133 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $800 +$115 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $365 +$64 +18%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $300 −$287 -96%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $269 +$57 +21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $20 +$4 +19%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +74%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $20 +$11 +57%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $20 +$14 +70%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 24 $200 +$7 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $198 +$99 +50%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $120 −$10 -8%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $232 −$230 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$40 +20%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$74 +249%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $61 +$51 +84%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$11 +107%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$15 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$1 -3%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $131 +$75 +57%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $92 +$100 +108%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $860 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 79¢ $684 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $685 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $552 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $907 24h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 9¢ $1 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $915 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $800 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $430 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $365 27h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 95¢ $300 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $326 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $269 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $906.16 · official $906.16 (match) · 245 history records