Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D8 0xd895…de0c other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,629 (+1%) realized +$1,636 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 109L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,367per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$22
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$98
politics 38% −$88
sports 6% +$1,872
world 1% −$83
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 90 -0.4% -9.9% 4% 2% -8.7%
all 121 +2.4% -7.4% 10% 8% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 8% -8.7%
10% -16.2% 8% -17.4%
15% -24.3% 7% -25.4%
20% -31.8% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,610) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$6 · ×29.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized+$1,636
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage111d
Avg bet$1,367
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $352 $352 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $48 $41 −$7 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,735 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,439 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,765 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,352 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,235 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $971 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $907 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,758 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,407 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,246 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $886 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $69 +$70 +101%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $469 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $3,215 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,873 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 19 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,173 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $5,471 −$8 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $2,949 −$4 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $3,330 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,184 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $3,651 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,196 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $2,592 −$9 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $3,124 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $339 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $339 2h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 3d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $579 4d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $580 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $633 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $634 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $498 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $499 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $552 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $553 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $650 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $651 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $481 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $482 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $352 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $840 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $841 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,037 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,039 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $969 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $971 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $795 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $796 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $905 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $907 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $722 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $723 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,063 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.10 · official $393.10 (match) · 401 history records