Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd898…a47d crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$272 (-12%) realized −$243 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$682
crypto 48% +$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 40% -25.7%
≤30d 25 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 40% -25.7%
≤90d 25 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 40% -25.7%
all 25 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 40% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 40% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 36% -32.8%
15% -27.3% 36% -39.3%
20% -34.4% 36% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$65 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$243
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Guido Justo 39¢ 30¢ $118 $89 −$29 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $64 +$56 +88%
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu Jun 19 $130 −$66 -51%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $68 +$93 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$51 -96%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $226 −$114 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $59 +$56 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $61 +$50 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $84 −$49 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $68 −$12 -18%
ITF Samobor: Jozef Kovalik vs Dimitar Kuzmanov Jun 19 $148 −$145 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $68 +$79 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$44 +178%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $116 −$92 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$32 +86%
ITF Sapporo: Ying Zhang vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 19 $167 −$132 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $89 +$78 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $66 +$13 +20%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $212 −$73 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $63 +$37 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$9 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 39¢ $120 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $120 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $64 50m
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu SELL Celia Cervino Ruiz 25¢ $64 51m
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 49¢ $130 1h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 12¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $53 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 21¢ $53 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 44¢ $115 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $115 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $59 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 20¢ $59 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 36¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $84 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $55 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $68 6h
ITF Samobor: Jozef Kovalik vs Dimitar Kuzmanov BUY Jozef Kovalik 36¢ $12 7h
ITF Samobor: Jozef Kovalik vs Dimitar Kuzmanov BUY Jozef Kovalik 37¢ $136 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $147 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $68 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $25 7h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 4¢ $24 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.34 · official $89.34 (match) · 56 history records