Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd899…b4b0 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day121.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 45% -19.9%
≤30d 38 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 45% -19.9%
≤90d 38 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 45% -19.9%
all 38 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 45% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 45% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 34% -27.6%
15% -29.3% 16% -34.6%
20% -36.3% 16% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day121.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records