Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8a0…2c5a other 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 993d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,015 (-12%) realized −$26,134 · open +$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate38%70W / 116L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,156per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$9,274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,097
7 days−$2,663
14 days−$2,686
30 days−$2,674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$22,706
sports 5% −$2,776
tech 3% +$47
world 3% +$345
politics 2% −$13
crypto 0% −$348
culture 0% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +28.4% +16.2% 46% 29% -15.6%
≤30d 41 +25.1% +13.2% 46% 29% -15.5%
≤90d 58 +9.1% -1.3% 41% 24% -15.8%
all 186 -6.7% -15.6% 38% 23% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 23% -20.6%
10% -23.6% 18% -28.2%
15% -31.0% 14% -35.1%
20% -37.8% 11% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$367 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

993d coverage
Net worth$9,274
Realized−$26,134
Unrealized+$119
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses70 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions5
Markets (closed)186 / 193
History coverage993d
Avg bet$1,156
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 99¢ 93¢ $5,015 $4,728 −$287 (-6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 48¢ 56¢ $3,000 $3,486 +$486 (+16%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 97¢ 89¢ $941 $864 −$77 (-8%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 40¢ 38¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,004 +$122 +12%
Spread: Mexico (-5.5) Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $3,406 −$3,400 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $419 +$47 +11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $903 +$97 +11%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 +$46 +45%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$5 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,830 +$399 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$10 -10%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 17 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,777 −$151 -1%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$8 -8%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 +$17 +17%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 17 $18 +$3 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $406 +$20 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,107 +$87 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $113 +$3 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $113 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $900 +$100 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$5 -5%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 +$490 +4757%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10,378 +$657 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $505 +$265 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $518 −$15 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$31 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $113 −$14 -13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $774 −$50 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$11 +11%
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? May 23 $98 $0 -0%
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? May 23 $194 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $484 −$484 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $587 +$13 +2%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $500 +$9 +2%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 16 $1,005 −$78 -8%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $201 +$49 +24%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $5,025 −$76 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 14 $100 −$4 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $102 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,126 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 15h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. BUY 14¢ $21 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 48¢ $3,063 18h
Spread: Mexico (-5.5) BUY Mexico 1¢ $9 38h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $9 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $14 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $27 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $129 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $721 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $2,506 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $903 46h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $277 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $132 47h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 9¢ $149 47h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $97 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10,268 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $92 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $562 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $10,626 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,274.45 · official $9,274.45 (match) · 788 history records