Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8a6…fc22 crypto 1526 markets active 1d ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$171 (+1%) realized +$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate78%1186W / 341L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day110.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$181
14 days+$197
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1123 +0.1% -9.4% 77% 72% -7.8%
≤30d 1527 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 68% -8.5%
≤90d 1527 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 68% -8.5%
all 1527 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 68% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 68% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 45% -17.3%
15% -26.0% 16% -25.3%
20% -33.3% 9% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1186 / 341
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1527 / 1526
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day110.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1527 Trades
no open positions (290 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$3 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$8 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$42 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $43 +$13 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$16 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$43 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$13 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$5 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$15 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$5 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$5 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$9 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$7 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $42 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $41 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $42 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $43 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $44 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $42 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $43 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $42 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $42 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $42 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $41 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $44 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $44 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $42 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $43 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $26 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $27 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $27 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $27 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $27 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $27 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $28 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $26 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records