Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D8 0xd8a7…d68d crypto 2271 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,311 (-29%) realized −$1,311 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%1153W / 732L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day82.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$114
14 days+$317
30 days+$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +36.6% +23.6% 72% 72% +22.6%
≤30d 1885 +17.7% +6.5% 61% 61% -0.6%
≤90d 1885 +17.7% +6.5% 61% 61% -0.6%
all 1885 +17.7% +6.5% 61% 61% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.5% 61% -0.6%
10% ← realistic here -3.7% 61% -10.1%
15% -13.0% 61% -18.8%
20% -21.5% 61% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses1153 / 732
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1885 / 2271
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day82.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1885 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records