Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd8a9…2af4 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$43 (-5%) realized −$42 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$46
14 days−$46
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 76% +$1
world 16% −$46
other 7% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 7 +13.0% +2.3% 57% 29% -14.4%
≤90d 7 +13.0% +2.3% 57% 29% -14.4%
all 7 +13.0% +2.3% 57% 29% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 29% -14.4%
10% -7.5% 29% -22.6%
15% -16.5% 29% -30.0%
20% -24.7% 14% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$24 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage16d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
OpenGradient FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$48 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 13 $668 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$2 +154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.70 · official $154.70 (match) · 13 history records