Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd8ab…6b8d crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$960 (-4%) realized −$960 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate84%21W / 4L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$980per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.6% -11.0% 84% 56% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -1.6% -11.0% 84% 56% -9.7%
≤90d 25 -1.6% -11.0% 84% 56% -9.7%
all 25 -1.6% -11.0% 84% 56% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 56% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 20% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 8% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,012) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$910 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$960
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses21 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$980
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $1,011 +$179 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $1,002 +$26 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $1,009 +$140 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $1,014 +$232 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $1,009 +$128 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $1,006 +$78 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $1,004 +$40 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $1,016 +$275 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $1,008 +$120 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $1,012 +$199 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $1,005 +$69 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $699 +$85 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $1,009 +$122 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $1,008 +$102 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $1,015 +$251 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $912 +$187 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $610 −$610 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $1,005 +$72 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $1,027 +$593 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $1,012 +$195 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $1,024 +$483 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1,011 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1,002 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1,149 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1,009 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $380 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $634 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,137 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1,009 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,084 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1,006 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,044 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1,004 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1,016 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1,008 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1,005 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1,012 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $784 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $699 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,130 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1,009 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,109 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $566 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $442 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,266 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1,015 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1,022 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,099 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $912 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $91 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $939 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records