Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8ac…b73d sports 855 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+0%) realized +$73 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%447W / 401L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$407est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$893
7 days+$1,471
14 days+$1,468
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$281
other 11% +$245
world 0% −$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 +4.7% -5.2% 56% 54% +28.4%
≤30d 551 +4.3% -5.6% 53% 52% -8.8%
≤90d 848 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 52% -9.7%
all 848 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 52% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 52% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 50% -18.3%
15% -24.5% 42% -26.2%
20% -31.9% 37% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$34 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses447 / 401
Est. fees paid−$407
Open positions7
Markets (closed)848 / 855
History coverage57d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 848 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+65%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $204 +$297 +146%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 −$3 -8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $68 +$57 +83%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $3 +$2 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $10 +$8 +83%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 -4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $14 −$8 -57%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $46 +$31 +68%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $7 +$2 +35%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $11 +$15 +140%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $12 +$5 +38%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 $0 -3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $7 +$2 +27%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $8 +$3 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$5 +66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 +$7 +18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $28 +$14 +52%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 $0 +29%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $12 −$9 -76%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $4 +$1 +29%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 +$10 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$120 +60%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $3 +$1 +39%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $43 −$36 -85%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $67 −$18 -27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1 +$2 +140%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $19 +$8 +44%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $19 −$2 -10%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $39 −$13 -33%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $11 −$5 -47%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mayar Sherif Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $24 +$4 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $40 −$19 -48%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $55 +$24 +43%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $156 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $47 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 60¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $64 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 65¢ $2 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 69¢ $3 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 61¢ $2 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 71¢ $1 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $2 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $1 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $6 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $2 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $2 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $1 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $1 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $1 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 43¢ $19 3h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $1 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 53¢ $3 3h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.56 · official $15.56 (match) · 2544 history records