Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8ae…a7e0 crypto 78 markets active 8h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (215 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$236 (+10%) realized +$236 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%35W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day214.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$48
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (215 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 40% -8.0%
≤30d 78 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 40% -8.0%
≤90d 78 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 40% -8.0%
all 78 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 40% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover214.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 40% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 38% -16.8%
15% -36.5% 31% -24.9%
20% -42.7% 24% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$22 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses35 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day214.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$11 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $28 +$18 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$54 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $49 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $44 +$46 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$40 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $24 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $78 +$54 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $23 +$11 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $55 +$115 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$38 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $43 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $40 −$12 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$34 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$13 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $38 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $46 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $29 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $27 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $28 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records