Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8af…9e9d sports 66 markets active 4h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$58 (+6%) realized +$57 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$52
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$46
other 6% +$6
world 1% −$5
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +28.5% +16.3% 30% 30% -12.1%
≤30d 52 +25.4% +13.5% 29% 29% -12.5%
≤90d 52 +25.4% +13.5% 29% 29% -12.5%
all 52 +25.4% +13.5% 29% 29% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.5% 29% -12.5%
10% +2.6% 27% -20.9%
15% -7.3% 27% -28.6%
20% -16.4% 25% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 37
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions14
Markets (closed)52 / 66
History coverage8d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chung vs. Imamura: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 47¢ 57¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner T1 68¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Over $1 $3 +$2 (+190%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? No $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma (Doubles): Paul/Seggerman vs Galan/Tobon Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $64 −$2 -3%
Oz vs. Pieri: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $48 −$2 -3%
Golubic vs. Kenin: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $1 +$99 +9612%
Shelton vs. Kyrgios: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $31 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Set Handicap: Blanchet (-1.5) vs Lajal (+1.5) Jun 16 $97 −$3 -3%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 16 $46 −$2 -3%
Set Handicap: Dart (-1.5) vs Boulter (+1.5) Jun 16 $61 −$2 -3%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Set Handicap: Buse (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 15 $64 −$2 -3%
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $69 −$2 -3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 +$13 +123%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $66 −$33 -50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $48 −$2 -3%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Blockx (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 13 $20 +$13 +64%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
O'Higgins FC leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
CD Coquimbo Unido leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
First Blood in Game 4? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -33%
Lyon (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Mansouri/Neuchrist Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Medvedev vs. Cilic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $16 +$11 +71%
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Mao Mushika Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Set Handicap: Kim (-1.5) vs Yamasaki (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$10 +187%
ITF Brasilia: Rafael Tosetto vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro Jun 11 $6 −$1 -12%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $10 4h
Parma (Doubles): Paul/Seggerman vs Galan/Tobon BUY Paul/Seggerman 51¢ $10 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No $1 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No $1 18h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No $1 18h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $1 18h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No $1 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Over $1 29h
Oz vs. Pieri: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $48 2d
Shelton vs. Kyrgios: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $31 2d
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 51¢ $64 2d
Chung vs. Imamura: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $49 2d
Set Handicap: Blanchet (-1.5) vs Lajal (+1.5) BUY Lajal 51¢ $97 2d
Bu vs. Virtanen: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) BUY Virtanen 51¢ $46 2d
Set Handicap: Dart (-1.5) vs Boulter (+1.5) BUY Boulter 51¢ $61 2d
Set Handicap: Buse (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) BUY Jodar 51¢ $64 3d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 57¢ $10 3d
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $69 3d
Golubic vs. Kenin: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over $1 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $23 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff SELL G2 Esports 33¢ $33 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 64¢ $66 4d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 51¢ $48 4d
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) BUY Paul 51¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.05 · official $104.05 (match) · 103 history records