Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8b3…11a1 politics 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%3W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$874per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$34
other 7% −$2
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$974) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses3 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage75d
Avg bet$874
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? Jun 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? Jun 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $937 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $937 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,891 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $940 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $939 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $944 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $946 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $949 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $956 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $957 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 08 $961 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $962 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $966 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 26 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $977 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $979 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $937 10d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $937 11d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $936 12d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $937 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $938 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $939 16d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $938 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $940 19d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $937 20d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $939 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $940 25d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $942 26d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $947 27d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $948 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $942 29d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $944 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $949 32d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $950 32d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $944 34d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $946 35d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $947 36d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $949 36d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $950 38d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $951 38d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $952 40d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $954 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.36 · official $44.36 (match) · 115 history records