Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd8b3…01ba crypto 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$255 (-14%) realized −$236 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%45W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day60.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$179
sports 22% −$40
other 10% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 -30.8% -37.4% 23% 22% -23.7%
≤30d 194 -30.8% -37.4% 23% 22% -23.7%
≤90d 194 -30.8% -37.4% 23% 22% -23.7%
all 194 -30.8% -37.4% 23% 22% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.4% 22% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -43.4% 22% -31.0%
15% -48.9% 22% -37.7%
20% -53.9% 22% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$236
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses45 / 149
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)194 / 198
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day60.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 43¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $15 +$40 +262%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $18 −$5 -26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $15 +$24 +154%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$9 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$11 +214%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$30 +223%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$54 +527%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0. Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$22 +216%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$15 +291%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$23 +442%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$1 -23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $13 +$16 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 37¢ $13 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 27¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 49¢ $18 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $39 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 43¢ $19 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $4 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $17 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $10 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $16 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.95 · official $27.96 (match) · 438 history records