Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8b5…3f36 weather 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-3%) realized −$26 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate67%26W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$11
other 5% +$5
tech 2% −$12
politics 2% −$3
world 1% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -17.2% -25.1% 68% 29% -12.4%
≤30d 31 -17.2% -25.1% 68% 29% -12.4%
≤90d 31 -17.2% -25.1% 68% 29% -12.4%
all 39 -17.4% -25.3% 67% 28% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 28% -13.6%
10% -32.4% 10% -21.9%
15% -38.9% 8% -29.4%
20% -44.9% 3% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses26 / 13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)39 / 48
History coverage223d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? No 89¢ 98¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? No 93¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 23? No 94¢ 96¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Yes 14¢ 30¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+111%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on June 22? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $23 +$2 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 −$15 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 +$7 +51%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $52 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 −$6 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$5 +49%
Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" at the next Prime Minister's Questions? Jan 14 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 14 $3 $0 +10%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Jan 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $2 $0 +12%
Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Dec 17 $15 −$12 -84%
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? Nov 28 $22 +$4 +19%
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? Nov 10 $10 $0 +2%
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by December 31? Nov 10 $9 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 88¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 88¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $11 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 87¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $9 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $25 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 21? SELL No 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 80¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 21? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $43 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? SELL No 3¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? SELL No 3¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 9¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 9¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 9¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 9¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 9¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 10¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? SELL No 92¢ $25 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.58 · official $65.58 (match) · 144 history records