Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8b5…bb10 crypto 95 markets active 1d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate65%62W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$9
14 days−$5
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$26
other 22% −$22
sports 11% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 46% -4.1%
≤30d 95 -6.0% -14.9% 65% 46% -13.6%
≤90d 95 -6.0% -14.9% 65% 46% -13.6%
all 95 -6.0% -14.9% 65% 46% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 46% -13.6%
10% -23.1% 33% -21.9%
15% -30.5% 26% -29.5%
20% -37.3% 15% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses62 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$10 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 +$8 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$33 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records