Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd8c1…16c0 other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,718 (-12%) realized −$11,148 · open +$1,430
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%99W / 68L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$20,614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$714
7 days−$6,107
14 days−$13,138
30 days−$12,550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$3,141
other 25% −$7,317
tech 25% −$1,238
politics 4% +$40
economics 3% +$680
finance 3% −$382
culture 0% +$4
sports 0% +$11
crypto 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -35.0% -41.2% 47% 31% -53.2%
≤30d 116 -22.6% -29.9% 58% 45% -41.7%
≤90d 167 -18.7% -26.5% 59% 46% -27.9%
all 167 -18.7% -26.5% 59% 46% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 46% -27.9%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 27% -34.8%
15% -39.9% 16% -41.1%
20% -45.8% 8% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$331 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$20,614
Realized−$11,148
Unrealized+$1,430
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses99 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions84
Markets (closed)167 / 251
History coverage62d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $2,167 $2,341 +$174 (+8%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $1,390 $1,475 +$85 (+6%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 70¢ 75¢ $1,275 $1,359 +$84 (+7%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $1,260 $1,330 +$70 (+6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 25¢ $150 $1,185 +$1,035 (+690%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 77¢ 90¢ $950 $1,100 +$150 (+16%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $750 $766 +$16 (+2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 47¢ $770 $762 −$8 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 94¢ $630 $760 +$130 (+21%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 74¢ 89¢ $602 $725 +$123 (+21%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? No 74¢ 88¢ $565 $671 +$106 (+19%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? No 66¢ 70¢ $530 $562 +$32 (+6%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 56¢ 67¢ $347 $412 +$65 (+19%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? No 71¢ 71¢ $390 $388 −$2 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 87¢ $300 $329 +$29 (+10%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 18¢ 26¢ $200 $290 +$90 (+45%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 71¢ 92¢ $216 $278 +$62 (+29%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? No 56¢ 34¢ $452 $277 −$175 (-39%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? No 80¢ 85¢ $260 $275 +$15 (+6%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 60¢ 33¢ $430 $238 −$192 (-45%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 23¢ 16¢ $325 $231 −$94 (-29%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 45¢ 66¢ $150 $216 +$66 (+44%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $215 $216 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 63¢ 30¢ $415 $200 −$215 (-52%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 60¢ 29¢ $415 $199 −$216 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,189 +$280 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $1,702 +$632 +37%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 18 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Jun 18 $60 +$8 +13%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 18 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30? Jun 17 $31 −$21 -68%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 17 $519 −$388 -75%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 17 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +16%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 in June? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 in June? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 17 $1,069 −$1,069 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? Jun 17 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $335 +$176 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 16 $360 −$350 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $2,440 −$2,411 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $265 −$140 -53%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $240 −$189 -79%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $190 −$146 -77%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $50 −$44 -87%
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? Jun 15 $293 +$80 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $680 +$14 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,098 −$987 -90%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 15 $21 −$16 -76%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $210 −$143 -68%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $295 −$221 -75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $130 −$75 -57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $130 −$89 -68%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 14 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 10¢ $10 41m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $31 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $10 4h
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $10 4h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $10 4h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $10 4h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? BUY No 77¢ $5 5h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? BUY No 77¢ $10 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $21 5h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $31 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $50 5h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? BUY No 71¢ $5 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $5 5h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $5 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 51¢ $61 5h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $21 5h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $5 5h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 20¢ $52 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $51 5h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $51 5h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $52 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $164 5h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $51 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,613.98 · official $20,614.06 (match) · 1602 history records