Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd8c4…848d
other · 123 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,955 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$943 · open −$5,367
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$24,267
Realized−$943
Unrealized−$5,367
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses15 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions54
Markets (closed)75 / 123
Avg bet$1,182
Trades / day289.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%
Chart Positions 54 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$1,179
14 days−$943
30 days−$943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $10,000 $15,350 +$5,350 (+54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $10,000 $4,650 −$5,350 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 13¢ 71¢ $385 $2,040 +$1,655 (+430%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $115 $705 +$590 (+511%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $410 $412 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $405 $407 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 81¢ 78¢ $126 $123 −$4 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $115 $110 −$6 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $156 $38 −$119 (-76%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $28 +$2 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $41 $26 −$16 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $115 $22 −$93 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $190 $15 −$174 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in July 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+33%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-27%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $173 $14 −$159 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $141 $12 −$129 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $138 $12 −$127 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $369 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $53 −$33 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $192 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $1,190 −$35 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $41 +$6 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $91 +$62 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $114 +$2,990 +2624%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$7 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $54 −$9 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $60 −$33 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $82 −$53 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $891 −$50 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $19 −$16 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $535 −$245 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $975 +$146 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $18 −$14 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $781 +$47 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3,010 −$2,997 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$8 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $25 −$7 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $28 −$5 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$6 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C or below on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1,316 +$180 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $245 −$179 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 69% −$5,350
other 31% −$952
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 0m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4 27m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $19 28m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $11 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $21 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $11 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $7 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $7 30m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $11 30m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4 30m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $7 30m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $11 30m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4 30m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $3 30m
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33m
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 34m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $249 39m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 48m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 49m
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 50m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $170 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -32.6% -39.0% 16% 11% -15.1%
≤30d 75 -27.3% -34.2% 20% 12% -13.3%
≤90d 75 -27.3% -34.2% 20% 12% -13.3%
all 75 -27.3% -34.2% 20% 12% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover289.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 12% -13.3%
10% -40.5% 5% -21.6%
15% ← realistic here -46.3% 5% -29.2%
20% -51.5% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,267.10 · official $24,267.15 (match) · 3500 history records