Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8c6…9211 sports 220 markets active 2h ago coverage 644d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,092 (-6%) realized −$8,085 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%111W / 108L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$589per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,250
7 days+$726
14 days+$726
30 days−$2,898
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,222
crypto 10% −$4,308
politics 5% −$2,032
economics 0% +$74
other 0% +$142
world 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +740.9% +660.8% 50% 50% +34.9%
≤30d 6 +195.4% +167.3% 17% 17% -45.1%
≤90d 17 +71.6% +55.3% 47% 41% -40.4%
all 219 +2.8% -7.0% 51% 42% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 42% -15.4%
10% -15.9% 32% -23.5%
15% -24.0% 27% -30.9%
20% -31.5% 19% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$651) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$298 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

644d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$8,085
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses111 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)219 / 220
History coverage644d
Avg bet$589
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $130 $123 −$7 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $82 +$1,250 +1519%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $1,397 −$523 -38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $545 −$540 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $322 −$307 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,768 −$1,629 -59%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,274 −$1,148 -50%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $98 −$97 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $180 −$180 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $102 +$175 +171%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 05 $380 −$135 -36%
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5 Apr 03 $103 +$21 +20%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5 Apr 03 $93 +$11 +12%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5 Apr 03 $49 +$44 +89%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $359 −$308 -86%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5 Apr 01 $255 +$73 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $265 +$24 +9%
Wizards vs. Lakers Mar 31 $133 +$133 +100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 27 $113 −$113 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-11.5) Mar 26 $44 +$69 +156%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 25 $608 −$564 -93%
Lakers vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 Mar 25 $501 +$20 +4%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 25 $4,279 −$948 -22%
Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5 Mar 24 $500 −$18 -4%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $4,757 +$1,687 +36%
Lakers vs. Magic: O/U 231.5 Mar 22 $663 −$547 -82%
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5 Mar 20 $329 −$329 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5 Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5 Mar 20 $1,050 −$1,032 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 9? Mar 20 $450 −$305 -68%
Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5 Mar 20 $319 +$212 +67%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 19 $2,645 +$176 +7%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $2,662 +$781 +29%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5 Mar 19 $296 −$266 -90%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $1,097 +$1,033 +94%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 Mar 17 $1,321 −$224 -17%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $608 +$713 +117%
Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 246.5 Mar 15 $615 −$507 -82%
Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 244.5 Mar 15 $126 −$12 -9%
Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5 Mar 13 $1,017 +$384 +38%
Pacers vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5 Mar 07 $170 +$148 +87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 8? Mar 07 $133 +$39 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 2-8? Mar 04 $250 −$167 -67%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 04 $1,882 +$392 +21%
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5 Mar 02 $1,074 +$808 +75%
Lakers vs. Warriors Mar 01 $762 +$312 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $700 +$62 +9%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 13 $2,212 −$108 -5%
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5 Feb 11 $400 +$237 +59%
Spurs vs. Lakers Feb 10 $1,857 −$622 -34%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5 Feb 10 $15 −$11 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $134 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $1,332 26h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 6¢ $82 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $826 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $48 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $545 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 32¢ $52 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 31¢ $128 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 30¢ $142 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $1,397 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,138 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,126 24d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 33¢ $2 42d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 34¢ $95 42d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $45 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $2 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $1 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $10 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $2 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $0 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $2 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $1 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $4 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $3 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $0 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $8 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $1 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $0 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $0 46d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $1 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.96 · official $122.96 (match) · 2140 history records