Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8c8…7972 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$192 (-15%) realized −$191 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$205
crypto 17% +$34
sports 2% −$16
politics 2% −$9
world 1% −$5
finance 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 58 -26.3% -33.3% 33% 28% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 28% -20.3%
10% -39.7% 21% -27.9%
15% -45.5% 19% -34.9%
20% -50.9% 16% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$191
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage165d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 22¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $48 −$26 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $43 −$36 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $57 −$18 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 22 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 22 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 22 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $25 −$9 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $68 −$16 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $27 −$14 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $28 −$10 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 22 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 22 $17 +$8 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 22 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 22 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 22 $40 +$41 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 21 $4 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Jan 21 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12AM ET Jan 21 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 21 $12 −$3 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 21 $54 +$70 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $48 −$35 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $12 −$9 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 19 $55 −$26 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 19 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 19 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 Jan 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 18 $44 −$21 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 18 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1AM ET Jan 18 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 8PM ET Jan 18 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026 Jan 18 $15 +$18 +117%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 2AM ET Jan 17 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12AM ET Jan 17 $5 +$3 +61%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 17 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 1AM ET Jan 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $33 +$75 +228%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $23 −$10 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $23 −$21 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 10 $5 −$3 -54%
WD-40 Company (WDFC) Up or Down After Earnings? Jan 10 $6 +$8 +122%
Maduro mugshot released by January 16? Jan 09 $29 +$6 +22%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $7 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 23h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $11 146d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $10 146d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $10 146d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 12¢ $7 147d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $21 147d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL No 77¢ $15 147d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $15 147d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $15 147d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 SELL Yes 5¢ $6 147d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 SELL Yes 2¢ $4 147d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $16 147d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 4¢ $2 147d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $8 147d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $9 147d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $10 147d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $8 147d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $15 147d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $5 147d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 6¢ $4 147d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY Yes 15¢ $5 147d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $25 147d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY Yes 27¢ $10 147d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $9 147d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 2¢ $1 147d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $16 147d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.89 · official $55.89 (match) · 175 history records