Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8cc…2c44 sports 1152 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,064 (-11%) realized −$1,061 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate73%834W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$176
14 days+$140
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$525
crypto 15% −$95
other 13% −$66
politics 9% −$3
weather 1% −$5
economics 1% +$4
finance 1% −$12
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% +$2
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +86.4% +68.7% 100% 50% +69.2%
≤30d 15 -4.6% -13.7% 60% 47% -2.6%
≤90d 193 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 41% -12.1%
all 1150 -4.8% -13.9% 73% 42% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 42% -16.4%
10% -22.1% 10% -24.4%
15% -29.6% 9% -31.7%
20% -36.5% 8% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$1,061
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses834 / 316
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1150 / 1152
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$168 +165%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $258 +$70 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $55 −$53 -96%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $54 −$52 -97%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $14 −$13 -98%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $352 +$48 +14%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $102 +$32 +32%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 -6%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m May 28 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? May 27 $3 $0 +15%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $14 +$8 +55%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas S May 20 $3 +$1 +19%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 12 $70 −$69 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $65 +$5 +8%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $38 −$3 -9%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 09 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? May 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds May 09 $6 +$4 +82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Legacy (BO5) - FERJEE In House Playoffs Mar 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 30 $26 −$3 -12%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 30 $35 +$8 +22%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Heat (-9.5) Mar 30 $8 +$7 +89%
Spread: Heat (-8.5) Mar 30 $7 +$8 +113%
Predators vs. Lightning Mar 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 30 $29 +$46 +158%
Greece vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Mar 30 $3 +$7 +270%
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants Mar 30 $8 +$7 +84%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) Mar 30 $5 +$4 +66%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $17 +$3 +20%
Capitals vs. Golden Knights Mar 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Canucks vs. Flames Mar 29 $9 +$5 +59%
Spread: Suns (-17.5) Mar 29 $4 +$4 +113%
Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $30 +$8 +27%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 29 $37 −$24 -63%
Devils vs. Hurricanes Mar 29 $3 +$2 +56%
Wild vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 29 $9 −$9 -97%
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: O/U 4.5 Mar 29 $8 +$1 +10%
Flyers vs. Red Wings Mar 29 $4 −$4 -96%
76ers vs. Hornets Mar 29 $2 +$3 +222%
Stars vs. Penguins Mar 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $102 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $193 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $52 12d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 13d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $41 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $132 15d
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $7 17d
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $5 17d
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $13 18d
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $324 19d
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $28 19d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 57¢ $134 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 28¢ $112 19d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 19d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m SELL Yes 83¢ $105 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 64¢ $14 22d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 43¢ $71 22d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 27d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 78¢ $101 27d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 25¢ $107 27d
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas S SELL No 100¢ $3 27d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Thunder 57¢ $70 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.29 · official $137.32 (match) · 3500 history records