Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D8 0xd8cc…661e sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,832 (-14%) realized −$3,817 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%46W / 42L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$411est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$3,277
14 days−$3,277
30 days−$3,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$3,999
other 6% +$240
crypto 1% −$347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -15.0% -23.1% 49% 44% -22.4%
≤30d 43 -15.0% -23.1% 49% 44% -22.4%
≤90d 85 -10.3% -18.8% 53% 46% -23.9%
all 88 -9.1% -17.8% 52% 45% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 45% -23.8%
10% -25.7% 41% -31.1%
15% -32.8% 38% -37.8%
20% -39.4% 25% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$208 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,610
Realized−$3,817
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses46 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$411
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage90d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $1,595 $1,580 −$14 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 52¢ 51¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$35 +108%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$39 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $898 +$429 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $331 −$325 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,262 +$736 +58%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $234 −$230 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$8 +62%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $1,231 +$260 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $272 +$128 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $552 +$88 +16%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $736 −$730 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $117 −$115 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $393 −$182 -46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $352 −$347 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,379 −$619 -45%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $81 +$59 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $567 −$194 -34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $694 +$125 +18%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1,533 +$133 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $682 −$673 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $820 −$185 -22%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $59 +$14 +24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $395 −$390 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,109 −$1,715 -81%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,281 +$964 +42%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2,092 −$555 -26%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $160 +$10 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $631 +$239 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $316 −$219 -69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $491 +$421 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $107 +$92 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $398 +$198 +50%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $196 −$194 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +93%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $54 −$49 -91%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $500 −$446 -89%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $176 −$175 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $426 +$205 +48%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $99 +$171 +172%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 24 $501 −$501 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $683 −$123 -18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $565 +$58 +10%
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Nanjing Monkey King Mar 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Qingdao Eagles Mar 23 $331 −$295 -89%
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 Mar 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $17 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $223 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $390 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $390 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $502 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $95 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 75¢ $81 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 14h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Austria win on 2026 BUY 17¢ $12 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $898 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $33 21h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $10 21h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 15¢ $10 21h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $51 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $102 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $38 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $119 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $1,998 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 50¢ $102 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $108 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $64 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $64 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $64 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $64 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $797 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $31 24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $41 24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $163 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,609.71 · official $1,609.71 (match) · 322 history records