Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8cd…6044 other 101 markets active 18h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$117 (-2%) realized −$111 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate40%39W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$41
14 days−$112
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$64
tech 23% −$28
sports 22% −$41
crypto 8% −$16
world 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.2% -8.4% 52% 21% -13.1%
≤30d 98 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 12% -11.8%
≤90d 98 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 12% -11.8%
all 98 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 12% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 12% -11.8%
10% -26.8% 8% -20.2%
15% -33.9% 6% -27.9%
20% -40.4% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses39 / 59
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage114d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 63¢ 40¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 +$3 +47%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 +$4 +63%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $56 −$4 -7%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 −$3 -17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $18 +$1 +3%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 $0 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -15%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $130 −$14 -10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $146 −$1 -1%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $39 +$6 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $89 −$20 -23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $54 −$4 -7%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $46 −$4 -8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$4 +21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 −$5 -12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 $0 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 $0 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $24 +$2 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +9%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 $0 +2%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $6 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $7 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 68¢ $7 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 60¢ $6 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 59¢ $6 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 24¢ $5 46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 27¢ $3 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $7 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $7 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 68¢ $14 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $7 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $7 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 96¢ $6 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $7 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 33¢ $3 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 84¢ $8 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 84¢ $5 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $8 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 28¢ $3 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $0 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 76¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.64 · official $8.97 (match) · 2249 history records