Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd8cd…e77c sports 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$615 (-8%) realized −$519 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%119W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$179
14 days−$206
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$222
other 29% −$576
crypto 7% −$35
culture 1% +$21
world 0% +$11
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +14.2% +3.3% 57% 55% -0.9%
≤30d 137 -17.9% -25.7% 40% 39% -15.7%
≤90d 284 -18.2% -26.0% 39% 38% -19.8%
all 295 -16.0% -24.0% 40% 39% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 39% -18.6%
10% -31.3% 37% -26.4%
15% -37.9% 35% -33.5%
20% -44.0% 31% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$519
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses119 / 176
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions11
Markets (closed)295 / 310
History coverage92d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 16¢ 30¢ $25 $48 +$23 (+91%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $26 +$16 (+162%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+83%)
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $54 +$36 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $90 −$89 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $44 +$10 +23%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$29 +188%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 +$81 +249%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $33 +$42 +128%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $41 +$48 +118%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $79 +$53 +67%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $59 +$20 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$30 +101%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $43 +$18 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $106 +$51 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $68 −$67 -99%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $42 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $73 +$41 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $41 +$32 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $33 +$31 +95%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $135 +$87 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $72 +$44 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $36 −$35 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $43 −$41 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $60 −$7 -12%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 09 $19 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $80 +$28 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $61 +$67 +109%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $20 +$23 +115%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $44 +$33 +76%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $72 −$71 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $37 +$34 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 16¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $132 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $90 16h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $54 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $44 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $54 18h
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $33 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $74 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $54 23h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $89 28h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $30 30h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 45¢ $41 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $33 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $79 42h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty SELL Los Angeles Thieves 99¢ $79 42h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 73¢ $59 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 39¢ $61 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 31¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 32¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $43 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 12¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.22 · official $213.22 · 671 history records