Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8cd…1820 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$8 (-4%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$5
other 25% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 3 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤90d 3 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -13.1%
all 3 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -13.1%
10% -22.7% 0% -21.4%
15% -30.2% 0% -29.0%
20% -37.1% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $144 −$5 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 82¢ $126 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $131 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 83¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $42 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $44 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $4 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $4 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records