Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:31:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8cf…1377 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$621 (-5%) realized −$682 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days−$980
14 days−$789
30 days−$789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$261
sports 36% −$413
world 0% −$44
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -29.9% -36.6% 39% 23% -17.2%
≤30d 46 -26.7% -33.7% 41% 26% -15.5%
≤90d 46 -26.7% -33.7% 41% 26% -15.5%
all 46 -26.7% -33.7% 41% 26% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 26% -15.5%
10% -40.0% 17% -23.5%
15% -45.8% 13% -30.9%
20% -51.1% 9% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$75 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,701
Realized−$682
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage9d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $1,500 $1,557 +$57 (+4%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $140 $145 +$5 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $140 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$27 -54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 −$9 -59%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$39 -38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $153 −$39 -25%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$28 -56%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $230 +$54 +24%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$34 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $31 +$7 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $84 +$3 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $232 −$17 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $342 +$38 +11%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -91%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $134 −$104 -78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $115 +$20 +17%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $167 −$56 -34%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -59%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$44 -87%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $163 −$122 -75%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $138 +$13 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $403 −$338 -84%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $277 +$199 +72%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $621 −$343 -55%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $502 +$25 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $301 +$22 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,003 +$48 +2%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 15 $101 −$59 -58%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$42 -41%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $502 +$54 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$72 -70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$75 +74%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,905 +$99 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$54 +53%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $112 −$77 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$38 -38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,509 +$286 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $333 +$147 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$43 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 81¢ $140 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $140 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $141 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $23 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $62 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 14¢ $18 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 14¢ $0 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $51 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 37¢ $96 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $51 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $22 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $51 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 39h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL No 98¢ $284 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $179 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $85 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 46¢ $38 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $31 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $87 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 96¢ $84 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 83¢ $184 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $181 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,701.35 · official $1,701.35 (match) · 112 history records