Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd8d4…ee54 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$140 (+15%) realized +$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$46
other 9% −$41
sports 2% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 43% -7.4%
≤30d 21 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 43% -7.4%
≤90d 21 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 43% -7.4%
all 21 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 43% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 43% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 38% -16.2%
15% -33.0% 33% -24.3%
20% -39.5% 29% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$21 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$44 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$47 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$97 +94%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 24 $51 −$18 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$12 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$42 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$52 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$29 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $61 +$12 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$15 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$3 -32%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $10 +$10 +98%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Panama vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $10 +$8 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $59 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $56 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $201 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 2h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 13¢ $33 2h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $33 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $144 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $155 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $130 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $73 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $61 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $24 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $21 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $42 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 18h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $20 19h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records